4 Playoff Predictions
NFL Week 18
With a week left in the regular season, the Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Browns (AFC) and 49ers, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles, and Rams (NFC) have all clinched a playoff berth. Here is what the NFL playoff bracket currently looks like (ahead of Week 18).
Lamar Jackson has been the league’s most valuable payer, leading the Ravens to the #1 overall seed. Buffalo has won 4 straight after starting the year 6-6. 38 year old Joe Flacco has lit up the NFL in recent weeks and has the Cleveland Browns in the playoffs. Still many questions remain unanswered. My predictions on how things will shake out below.
1. The KC Chiefs return to the Super Bowl
The Chiefs lost to the Raiders at home in December 2 weeks ago as -550 favorites. In their Chiefs 25-17 victory over the Bengals this past Sunday they scored only 1 touchdown. Travis Kelce recorded his 3rd straight game with less than 50 yards. They relied on the leg of Harrison Butker (6 FGs) and their defense to beat the Jake Browning led Cincinnati Bengals. Tony Romo said late in the 4th quarter of the game that the Chiefs have “yet to find their offensive identity.”
It hasn’t looked the same as years past, but they are 10-6 and have won the AFC West for the 8th year in a row. Star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed shut down JaMarr Chase (3 catches, 41 yards) and Davante Adams (1 catch, 4 yards) in consecutive weeks. Chris Jones has continued his dominant play. Their defense has allowed 17.6 PPG, the 3rd best in the league.
While they have a glaring weakness at WR, Rashee Rice has stepped up his game considerably, recording 82 yards/game over the past 5 weeks. RB1 Isaiah Pacheco has rushed for over 85 yards in 3 of his last 5 games.
I’d argue their defense and running game is far better than last year’s. If Mahomes, Kelce, and the passing game can get back on track don’t be surprised if they are back in the Super Bowl. Mahomes is 11-3 in the playoffs.
2. The LA Rams will win at least 1 playoff game
After a slow start to the season, the Rams have won 6 of their last 7 games. Matthew Stafford has been the best QB in football not named Lamar Jackson during that stretch. Their 1 loss in the last 7 games came in overtime at Baltimore. In a game where Stafford threw for 294 yards and 3 TDs, which is by far the best any QB has played against the NFL’s #1 defense this year.
While the Rams defense is not great (19th in the NFL in PPG), the offense is among the NFL’s best and most balanced. Kyren Williams has continued his superb play and is currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards despite missing 4 games. Rookie sensation Puka Nacua has been unstoppable.
The Rams are only 2 years removed from winning a Super Bowl, and still have their key core of Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. The high-pressure environment and intensity of postseason games differ significantly from regular season games. Some players simply don’t play as well under bright lights, while others play better. The Rams playoff experience should not be overlooked.
3. The Eagles are finished
The Philadelphia Eagles have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Most recently at home, to the 3-12 Arizona Cardinals. While Jalen Hurts and the offense haven’t played as well in the past 5 games, the play of their pass defense has been their Achilles heel all season. Even when the Eagles were 10-1 and considered by many to be the NFL’s best team, their pass defense was ranked among the worst in the league.
Mac Jones (whose been benched 4x this year) threw for over 300 yards against them in Week 1. Sam Howell (whose also been benched 2x this year) has thrown for 290 yards, 1 TD and 397 yards, 4 TDs in his 2 games vs. PHI this year. Kyler Murray just lit them up for 25/31, 232 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT.
I do still believe in Jalen Hurts and think the offense will bounce back. However I have no faith in the Eagles ability to defend the pass and wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t win a playoff game this year.
4. The Miami Dolphins will lose SNF vs the Bills and their opening playoff game
The Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Week 18 game will conclude the regular season and has plenty of playoff implications. The winner will take the AFC East Crown and #2 seed in the AFC Conference.
While Miami sits at 11-5 atop the division, I can’t find an impressive win on their resume outside of their Week 16 victory against the Cowboys, in Miami. Even this victory isn’t very substantial as the Cowboys are a completely different team on the road (3-5) vs at home (8-0). They look great versus subpar teams, but in Miami’s 5 losses this year (BUF, PHI, KC, TEN, and BAL) they’ve lost by an average of 16.8 points.
If Miami loses to Buffalo on Sunday Night Football, they will likely be the #6 seed, which means Miami has to travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in the 1st round.
Thanks for reading. If you disagree don’t hesitate to light me up in the comments.